Crime Scraps reports that my musings were fairly accurate and that four of my six choices have been selected:
Karin Alvtegen - Shadow (translated by McKinley Burnett)The CWA website has the reasons behind each of the choices.
Stieg Larsson - The Girl Who Played With Fire (translated by Reg Keeland)
Johan Theorin - Echoes From The Dead (translated by Marlaine Delargy)
Fred Vargas - The Chalk Circle Man (translated by Sian Reynolds)
Arnaldur Indridason - Arctic Chill (translated by Bernard Scudder and Victoria Cribb)
Jo Nesbo - The Redeemer (translated by Don Bartlett) (=>Crime Scraps's review)